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    基于SBAS-InSAR和SSA-CNN-LSTM模型的矿区地表沉降监测与预测分析

    Monitoring and Prediction Analysis of Surface Subsidence in Mining Areas Based on SBAS-InSAR and SSA-CNN-LSTM Model

    • 摘要: 该文针对任家庄矿区高强度开采引发的地表沉降问题, 开展了地表沉降监测与预测分析, 采用小基线集干涉合成孔径雷达技术(small baseline subset-interferometric synthetic aperture radar, SBAS-InSAR)反演矿区时序形变场, 实现毫米级精度的沉降监测; 引入麻雀搜索算法(sparrow search algorithm, SSA)优化超参数并抑制噪声干扰, 结合卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network, CNN)的空间特征提取能力与长短期记忆网络(long-short-term memory network, LSTM)的时序规律捕捉能力, 形成时空协同预测框架。结果显示: 1)监测期内, 矿区最大累计沉降量达-432.02 mm, 最大沉降形变速率为-224.17 mm/a; 2)在6个典型监测点的预测中, SSA-CNN-LSTM模型的MAE和RMSE较LSTM模型分别平均降低47.6 %和47.2 %, 较CNN-LSTM模型分别平均降低34.3 %和37.2 %, 预测精度显著提升; 3)特殊地质条件区P6点未来10期预测累计沉降量达-149 mm, 存在较大安全隐患, 需重点防控。该方法通过"监测-预测"体系, 改善了传统地表沉降监测技术覆盖范围有限且难以进行预测的现状, 为矿区灾害风险防控提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: This study conducts surface subsidence monitoring and predictive analysis for the subsidence caused by high-intensity mining in Renjiazhuang Mining Area. The small baseline subset-interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SBAS-InSAR) technique is adopted to invert the time-series deformation field of the mining area, realizing subsidence monitoring with millimeter-level accuracy. The sparrow search algorithm (SSA) is introduced to optimize hyperparameters and suppress noise interference. Combining the spatial feature extraction capability of the convolutional neural network (CNN) and the temporal pattern capturing capability of the long-short-term memory network (LSTM), a spatiotemporal collaborative prediction framework is constructed. The results indicate that: (1) During the monitoring period, the maximum cumulative subsidence in the mining area reaches-432.02 mm, and the maximum subsidence rate is -224.17 mm/a. (2) In the prediction of 6 typical monitoring points, the MAE and RMSE indicators of the fusion SSA-CNN-LSTM model are reduced by an average of 47.6% and 47.2% respectively compared with the LSTM model, and by an average of 34.3% and 37.2% respectively compared with the CNN-LSTM model, indicating a significant improvement in prediction accuracy.(3) The cumulative settlement at Point P6 in the special geological condition area is projected to reach-149 mm over the next 10 periods, posing significant safety hazards that require prioritized prevention and control measures. Through the "monitoring-prediction" system, this method improves the limitationsJP+1of traditional surface subsidence monitoring techniques, such as limited coverage and poor prediction capability. It provides technical support for harzard risk prevention and control in mining areas.

       

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